| Forecast Based On: |
1997.2 |
1997.3 |
1997.4 |
1998.1 |
1998.2 |
1998.3 |
1998.4 |
1999.1 |
1999.2 |
1999.3 |
1999.4 |
2000.1 |
2000.2 |
2000.3 |
2000.4 |
2001.1 |
2001.2 |
2001.3 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Complete Data for Previous
Quarter |
n/a |
1.8 |
1.6 |
3.9 |
2.1 |
4.5 |
2.9 |
4.5 |
3.5 |
3.2 |
2.7 |
5.0 |
4.4 |
1.7 |
2.9 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Payroll Employment Month
1 |
n/a |
2.8 |
1.9 |
4.4 |
1.8 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
3.8 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
3.2 |
5.4 |
4.3 |
-0.2 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
0.6 |
1.3 |
| Retail Sales Month 1 |
n/a |
2.6 |
1.5 |
4.1 |
2.1 |
2.6 |
2.9 |
3.9 |
2.2 |
3.5 |
2.7 |
5.3 |
3.8 |
0.0 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
0.9 |
1.2 |
| Personal Consumption Expenditures
Month 1 |
n/a |
3.0 |
2.1 |
4.6 |
2.3 |
1.9 |
2.9 |
3.4 |
2.2 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
5.7 |
3.7 |
-0.4 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
0.1 |
1.1 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Payroll Employment Month
2 |
n/a |
2.5 |
3.0 |
4.7 |
2.8 |
2.2 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
1.7 |
2.7 |
3.1 |
4.2 |
3.8 |
-1.0 |
1.4 |
2.4 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
| Retail Sales Month 2 |
n/a |
1.9 |
2.7 |
4.9 |
3.1 |
1.9 |
3.1 |
3.6 |
2.2 |
2.9 |
3.3 |
4.6 |
3.3 |
-1.0 |
0.9 |
1.9 |
0.2 |
1.0 |
| Personal Consumption Expenditures
Month 2 |
n/a |
3.4 |
3.0 |
5.6 |
2.8 |
2.7 |
3.0 |
4.3 |
2.3 |
3.1 |
3.2 |
4.6 |
3.3 |
-0.5 |
1.3 |
2.6 |
0.6 |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Payroll Employment Month
3 |
n/a |
3.4 |
2.1 |
4.8 |
2.8 |
2.3 |
3.3 |
3.7 |
2.1 |
2.5 |
3.3 |
4.6 |
2.5 |
-0.2 |
1.2 |
2.2 |
0.5 |
|
| Retail Sales Month 3 |
n/a |
3.4 |
3.3 |
5.0 |
2.9 |
2.4 |
3.3 |
3.9 |
2.1 |
2.6 |
3.5 |
4.4 |
2.4 |
-0.3 |
1.0 |
2.1 |
0.5 |
|
| Personal Consumption Expenditures
Month 3 |
n/a |
3.7 |
3.5 |
5.2 |
3.7 |
2.6 |
3.0 |
4.5 |
2.0 |
3.0 |
3.5 |
5.4 |
2.4 |
-0.4 |
0.1 |
1.9 |
0.2 |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Actual Advance Release |
2.2 |
3.5 |
4.3 |
4.2 |
1.4 |
3.3 |
5.6 |
4.5 |
2.3 |
4.8 |
5.8 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
2.7 |
1.4 |
2.0 |
0.7 |
|
| Actual Preliminary Release |
3.6 |
3.3 |
3.9 |
4.8 |
1.6 |
3.9 |
6.1 |
4.1 |
1.8 |
5.5 |
6.9 |
5.4 |
5.3 |
2.4 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
0.2 |
|
| Actual Final Release |
3.3 |
3.1 |
3.7 |
5.4 |
1.8 |
3.7 |
6.0 |
4.3 |
1.6 |
5.7 |
7.3 |
5.5 |
5.6 |
2.2 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
0.3 |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Notes:
The forecasts in this table are generated by a BVAR (bayesian vector autoregression)
model which uses monthly data on employment, retail sales, and personal
consumption expenditures to predict the growth rate of real GDP. Forecast
values reported in this table use the latest data available (including
revisions) at the time each of these three monthly indicators are released.
Forecasts for 1997.2 are not available. The model is similar to the one
described in "Using Monthly Data to Predict Quarterly Output" by Robert
Ingenito and Bharat Trehan, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic
Review, 1996:3. |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Updated:
September 28, 2001 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|