MD 815: Management of Technology and Innovation
Preparation for Session #5: Monday 2/18/2002
Readings
You'll be prompted for your BC UserID and PIN if you're off campus. In the Date Range pull-down box change the value to Backfile (1986 -1998). Next enter TI(Managing Through Cycles of Technological Change) in the Search box. The "TI" stands for "Title". The first hit will be the article you want. Click on the little camera icon to bring up the page image.
Note, the main thing I want you to get out of this short article is an understanding of the "dominant design" concept and the cycles of technological change that occur as one dominant design gives way to another. Most of our focus will be on the following article by Teece.
Study Questions for Andersen and Tushman
Study Questions for Teece "Profiting from Technological Innovation"
Study Questions for Pixar Case
1. Think about the main elements of the initial deal Pixar struck with Disney Pictures for a sequence of three animated films. Why was Disney able to command such favorable terms from Pixar?
Analytical Essay
VA Linux and Open Source
One of the more important developments in the IT field in the last decade is the emergence of the so-called "open source" model of commercial software development. Some have called "open source" a disruptive technology, which may or may not be right, but in any case it is an interesting development and provides the backdrop for our mini-case example, systems vendor VA Linux.
With the conventional software development model, a company, such as Microsoft, builds a software package, such as the Windows operating system, and takes on all responsibility for future enhancements and improvements to that package. While Microsoft will work closely with industry partners throughout the development process, they are in total control and they of course own the result of the effort, for which they can charge as a they see fit. While companies such as Microsoft will publish information about interfaces to the system, the actual program source code itself will not be released. Rather, the code itself is treated as a trade secret. Commercial software vendors will also get copyright protection for their systems, which prevents another company from independently developing a package that is substantially the same in terms of "look and feel".
Under the open source model, by contrast, an single programmer or a small group of programmers will develop a software system and make that package freely available to the public. Not only will compiled code be made freely available, but the actual program "source" code itself will be made available as well. What this means is that users can figure out for themselves how a program works and whether it is working correctly. They can modify the program at will to fix bugs or to better suit their needs. There will still be a "standard" version of the system for which modifications and improvements are administered either by the original developers or by a group they have set up for this purpose. For the most popular open source packages, such as the Linux operating system and Apache web server, there has emerged a worldwide army of programmers that are constantly trying to find errors or suggest improvements. It is considered a high honor among these folks to have their contributions incorporated into the next version of Linux.
Commercial companies also play a role in the open source model. While in principle any company can download a version of Linux or Apache from a free site, this imposes upon them the burden of installing and configuring the software and complementary products (such as utility programs or a graphical user interfaces). Since many end users would prefer not to do this, open source software vendors such as Ret Hat have emerged that take on the burden of "packaging up" the open source system. They will develop their own version or "build" of the software that includes extra programs to make installation of the software itself and complementary tools go easier. And they will offer after-the-sale service and support. They must charge for all this, of course, but what they are charging for is not for the open source software per se, but for their particular configuration of the software. And buyers are still free to further modify the program as they see fit.
The open source approach has many devout adherents. For this reason it is often called the "open source movement", like a religious or political movement. Proponents of this approach will make a number of arguments in favor of open source. They will argue that certain sorts of software, such as an operating system, are naturally a public good and should follow the public utility model. They will argue that open source, by harnessing the energies of the best programmers worldwide is a more efficient and more robust model for software development. They believe this approach lead to programs that have fewer bugs, crash less often, and are more hack-resistant. (Follow this link for a concise description of the purported advantages of open source: <http://www.opensource.org/advocacy/case_for_business.html>)
Critics of the open source movement will say that it is only appropriate for certain kinds of software (e.g., systems software and utilities that do not have to respond quickly to the needs of the market), that most IT managers would never trust their core applications to software than no particular entity controls and can be held accountable for, and that the coordination effort to keep these systems up with the times will prove too great.
In any case, there is no disputing popularity of the Linux operating system, the best known and most important open source software system. Developed in the 1980s by a Linus Torvald, Linux was intended as a better version of the Unix operating system originally developed at U-Cal Berkley. Linux now runs a large fraction of web servers, and has been gaining some ground in corporate data centers. It has been adopted by some cable TV companies as the operating system running their set top boxes. It has also been used in devices ranging from PDAs to portable phones to TiVo digital video recorders. It has not, however, made any significant in roads in the PC market. At least not yet.
VA Linux was the first company to build hardware systems designed specifically to run Linux. Throughout the 1990s VA Linux was the leading vendor of Linux systems, and enjoyed a find reputation in those data centers where Linux adherents had an impact on buying decisions. Even so, beyond a small number of highly technical people Linux was not widely known, and neither was VA Linux. Then in 1998-99, concurrent with the upswing of commercial interest in the Internet, all this changed. People became enamored of the potential for open source in general and Linux in particular to shake up the software industry. Some people felt that Linux software vendors, such as Red Hat, were well positioned to become the "next Microsoft". This fueled a phenomenal rise in the value of Red Hat shares (the first Linux company to go public) from $20 a share shortly after the August 1999 IPO to an all time high of $150 a share in December of that year (symbol: RHAT).
Just as investor interest in Linux was reaching a crescendo in December of 1999, VA Linux went public (symbol: LNUX). Initially offered at $30 a share, the stock opened at $300 and hit an IPO day high of $320 a share, giving it a peak market value of $11 billion and making it the most successful IPO in history. (To put this in to perspective, around this same time Ford bought Volvo for $7 billion). At the time VA Linux had trailing sales of about $50 million. Investors were particularly impressed with VA Linux because of its excellent pedigree. Linus Torvald was on its board, and many of the top Linux programmers in the world worked for the company. Investors believed they were getting in on the ground floor of what was to become the dominant hardware vendor for the operating system of the future—the Dell of Linux, if you will. They believed that VA Linux, with its big head start, high levels of respect and trust in the hard-core Linux community, top-flight developers and pile of IPO cash were well positioned indeed.
Things unfolded rather differently for VA Linux. For a time the company continued to grow sales at a break neck pace (almost 100% a quarter). Their systems were especially popular among Internet startups. Yet they experienced continual losses. Soon after the IPO most of the established systems vendors announced support for Linux, though with various degrees of enthusiasm. Dell, Compaq and IBM were highly enthusiastic, HP was somewhat enthusiastic, and Sun was grudging. Within six months Compaq and Dell were the leading vendors of Linux systems in terms of number of systems sold. Today, Linux continues to sell well in certain markets, and the biggest vendor in terms of overall sales (hardware and services) is IBM. IBM has dedicated billions of dollars of R&D to developing its Linux business. See this link for more on the role of Linux within IBM today: <http://www.newsforge.com/article.pl?sid=02/01/30/1454220> .
VA Linux has now been renamed "VA Software" following a merger with a Source Forge (a software vendor), and has repositioned itself as software company, having exited the hardware business in 2001, less than two years after it's record setting IPO. As the company put it in their 2001 Annual report: "In business, companies must evolve to address market realities. The market for our systems products was predominantly Internet startups. That market contracted. The overall economy declined. Our sales and margins fell. Our losses rose. To stem those losses, we have exited the hardware business."