Ivan Petkov

We design business and personal web sites including other things.

I am a fifth-year Economics Ph.D. student at Boston College.

My research interests are: Macroeconomics and Finance, Banking, Monetary Economics, and Economic Growth

Research:
Current Projects and Working Papers

Abstract: In this paper, I examine the role of banks in propagating local economic shocks from one area to another through their network of bank branches, by exploiting a newly developed branch-level dataset. Specifically, I examine the change in the geographical distribution of small business loans within each bank network in response to: 1) increases in deposit growth due to presence in areas with new fracking wells; 2) changes in the profitability of real estate loans due to presence in areas experiencing real estate booms. I evaluate how the supply-driven changes in lending following these shocks impact real economic activity. I find that banks export the increase in liquidity from the fracking areas and fund more small business loans at other, more distant branches. Borrowers from banks with a higher exposure to fracking experience faster establishment growth at areas beyond 100 miles from the fracking activity. The results for the real estate booms show that increases in the return of real estate loans contributed to a decrease in small business lending at branches away these booms. Borrowers from banks with high exposure to residential appreciation experienced slower establishment growth even within areas at a significant distance from the real estate booms.

Small Business Lending and the Bank-Branch Network

Job Market Paper

The maps above are from the paper. The first map shows the distribution of the positive deposit shock for banks - locations where new ``fracking'' wells are being spudded (indicated by positive numbers).

 

The second map shows the average growth rate of house prices during 2005 as measured by FHFA's Hose Price Index.

Natural Disasters and Collateral Damage: the Effect on Small Business Lending

Coming soon

Abstract: Banks in the areas affected by these natural disasters play a key role in rebuilding the destroyed capital. Both relief and insurance funds are deposited in local financial institutions as business owners and households plan their rebuilding efforts. The financial institutions also provide loans to supplement the required investments. As a result local banks see an increase both in the growth rate of their deposits and in the demand for credit.

This paper aims to disentangle the possible supply-driven changes in small business lending in the credit markets serviced by banks with exposure to natural disasters. Small banks can respond to the jump in deposit growth by not only providing the necessary credit in the damaged areas but also to markets that are not damaged by the disaster. This study examines whether banks used the additional liquidity to provide funding for businesses away from the areas exposed to the hurricanes. I also investigate the possible effect on the real economy in these areas.

The picture above plots information on estimated damages from natural disasters, the amount of federal assistance provided to affected individuals though SBA, and the amount of federal funding provided to state governments during 2004. I also overlay the networks of banks with less than 30 branches that are partially affected by the disasters.

The picture shows the aggregate ancestry shares in the U.S. over time. It is a striking testament to the ever-evolving ethical composition of the U.S..

Does it matter where you came from? Ancestry composition and economic

performance of U.S. counties, 1850 - 2010

with Fabio Schiantarelli and Scott Fulford

Abstract: The United States provides a unique laboratory for understanding how the cultural, institutional, and human capital endowments of immigrant groups shape economic outcomes. In this paper, we use census micro-samples to reconstruct the country-of-ancestry composition of the population of US counties from 1850 to 2010. We also develop a county-level measure of GDP per capita over the same period. Using this novel panel data set, we show that the evolution of the country-of-origin composition of a county is significantly associated with changes in county-level GDP. The cultural, institutional, and human capital endowments from the country of origin drive this association. Particularly important are attitudes towards cooperation with others. Using an instrumental variable strategy, we identify a significant effect of changes in the ancestry-weighted endowments on economic development. Finally, our results suggest that while the fractionalization of ancestry groups is positively related to county GDP, fractionalization in attributes such as trust is negatively related to local economic performance.

Culture: Persistence and Evolution

with Francesco Giavazzi and Fabio Schiantarelli

Abstract: This paper presents evidence on the speed of evolution (or lack thereof) of a wide range of values and beliefs of different generations of European immigrants to the US. The main result is that persistence differs greatly across cultural attitudes. Some, for instance deep personal religious values, some family and moral values, and political orientation converge very slowly to the prevailing US norm. Other, such as attitudes toward cooperation, redistribution, effort, children's independence, premarital sex, and even the frequency of religious practice or the intensity of association with one's religion, converge rather quickly. The results obtained studying higher generation immigrants differ greatly from those found when the analysis is limited to the second generation, as typically done in the literature, and they imply a lesser degree of persistence than previously thought. Finally, we show that persistence is ``culture specific'' in the sense that the country from which one's ancestors came matters for the pattern of generational convergence.

This picture is form the paper. We compute convergence for each of the attitudes in our sample by comparing the ratio of the deviation from the norm in the first generation immigrant from a particular country to the deviation from the norm in the forth generation of an immigrant from the same country. When the ratio is represented graphically, we can see eight possible categories of multi-generational evolution of attitudes.

Presentations:

Small Business Lending and the Bank-Branch Network

CV:

 

Contact:

Address:

Boston College

Department of Economics

140 Commonwealth Avenue

Chestnut Hill, MA 02160

 

email: petkovi@ bc.edu

 

Telephone: +1 (857) 869 5353

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